COIN Earnings Preview: Can Coinbase Wow with Q4 Results?

Introduction

Coinbase [COIN], one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency infrastructure platforms, is set to announce Q4 and full-year 2024 earnings on February 13.

With a quarterly trading volume of $185bn, the performance of COIN stock is closely linked to the state of the wider cryptocurrency market.  

Following lackluster Q3 earnings — in which Coinbase missed both EPS and revenue predictions — investors will be watching keenly to see whether the final quarter of the year saw any unexpected upsides.

What’s the Latest with COIN Stock?

It has been a strong start to the year for Coinbase’s global expansion, with announcements that the company will expand into Argentina, and that it has been registered as a virtual asset service provider with the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority. This will allow the platform to offer both crypto- and fiat-related services in the UK.

This is welcome news following Coinbase’s underwhelming performance in Q3 2024; EPS of $0.28 fell significantly short of the $0.45 Wall Street had been looking for. Similarly, revenue of $1.21bn was shy of the $1.26bn target.

That said, there was lots to be positive about in the earnings report, with the company’s seventh consecutive quarter of positive adjusted EBITDA. 

How Has COIN Stock Fared Recently?

Following Q3 results on October 30, COIN stock dropped 15.34% to sit near 12-month lows.

However, following the US election, COIN stock jumped 80.89% between October 31 and November 11; the S&P Cryptocurrency Top 10 Equal Weight Index [SPCC10] rose 40.25% between November 4 and 11.

With Elon Musk’s DOGE outfit bringing blockchain technology right into the heart of the US government, and expectations of more favorable cryptocurrency regulation under the Trump administration, investors might have been expecting a continued rally on COIN stock into 2025.

This did not quite hold true, however, with a choppy few months seeing COIN stock close 17.68% down from November 11 on February 11. However, it remains close to the peaks reached in April and July.

Is COIN Keeping Up with the Competition?

There is no denying that the middle quarters of 2024 were challenging for cryptocurrency plays, with the Bitcoin halving event, hacking scandals and former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried receiving a 25-year prison sentence for fraud.

Riot Platforms’ [RIOT] stock performance following Q3 results largely mirrors COIN’s, with lackluster results and prediction misses failing to enthuse investors. A similar spike following the US election was seen, before a choppy three months to February 7’s close. The primary difference, for Riot, is that even the election spike did not bring it close to highs reached in spring 2024.

That said, Riot is operating at a healthier price to sales ratio of 8.72, and with 85.77% growth expectations vastly outstripping Coinbase’s modest 6.49%, it could be a stock to watch in the coming months.

Always an interesting player in the crypto-sphere, Strategy [MSTR] — formerly MicroStrategy — continues to surprise in 2025. Following a rebrand that foregrounds the business intelligence firm’s Bitcoin strategy, MSTR stock has been largely flat in the first week of February, closing February 11 up 10.30% from the end of 2024.

This relative stability comes despite somewhat disappointing Q4 results, with revenues of $120.7m marking a 3% decline year-over-year. Its P/S ratio of 132.72 is unlikely to fill investors with confidence, either.

Source: Yahoo Finance

So, with cryptocurrency markets adjusting to the Trump administration, is Coinbase a promising play ahead of Q4 earnings?

COIN Stock: The Investment Case

The Bull Case for COIN

Cryptocurrency is unlikely to become a low-risk play anytime soon, but Trump’s return to the White House is being regarded as good news for the sector. 

In addition to the aforementioned DOGE team, President Trump has made a range of pro-crypto moves in his first weeks in office. 

In addition, Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler, largely regarded as a crypto-sceptic, stepped down on the day of Trump’s inauguration. He has been replaced by Mark Uyeda as acting chair, and Paul Atkins is awaiting Congress confirmation to run the agency. Both are pro-crypto, and Uyeda has already begun the process of legitimizing cryptocurrencies in the US. 

With such a bullish political climate, COIN’s closing price of $266.90 on February 11 sits below the average analyst price target of $295.68, as reported by Yahoo Finance.

The high estimate suggests COIN could feasibly reach up to $400, representing a healthy 39.87% upside potential.

If COIN can report healthy Q4 earnings on February 13, showing it is on track to match growth targets for 2025, these price estimates could well continue to increase.

The Bear Case for COIN

That said, there are, as ever, two sides to the COIN. While there are positive prospects on the horizon, there are also reasons to be cautious with the stock.

Those who follow Cathie Wood’s holdings will be interested to hear the big-name investor has consistently reduced her holdings in COIN over the previous six quarters. This includes a near-halving in Q1 2024, when she sold 4.18m shares, amounting to 48.6% of her stake.

Whether this is interpreted as cashing in on profits or cutting and running, investors who trust Wood’s methods might well see this as a reason for caution.

Wood currently holds 3.03m shares in COIN, amounting to $810m. 

Ken Griffin, another notable name in the investment space, also sold 61.2%, 51.4% and 38.5% of his stake in COIN in Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2024, respectively.

The Trump administration is being hailed as a positive for cryptocurrency, but it has proved disruptive for markets globally. As cryptocurrency’s reach extends far beyond the borders of the US, gains based on US policy alone could reach a ceiling.

Nor can recent events eclipse the volatility of the global market. Cryptocurrency is incredibly sensitive to wider economic and political movements worldwide.

Conclusion

COIN has a lot to prove in its Q4 earnings release this week. Investors will no doubt be interested to see how the stock performs in response, as well as paying attention to broader market markers over the coming months.