EBAY Stock: Can eBay Regain Record Highs?

Introduction

eBay [EBAY] has enjoyed an impressive rally in the past 18 months, rising 90.36% between October 27, 2023 and March 7, 2025.

Notable dips have occurred along the way. Among them was an 8.19% drop following a lackluster Q1 outlook, issued alongside impressive Q4 and FY 2024 results.

Is EBAY on track to regain the all-time highs seen in October 2021, or will the current rally run out?

What’s the Latest for EBAY Stock?

EBAY’s rally has been spurred by a combination of internal improvements and external events.

The firm’s ambition for continued expansion in the e-commerce space is evidenced by careful acquisitions, such as the purchase of Caramel, completed on February 6.

Caramel’s technology platform offers a nominally safe and easy transaction experience for the sale and purchase of vehicles online. It could prove to be a crucial addition to eBay’s digital commerce portfolio.

Investors might also be interested to note eBay is collaborating with OpenAI to be one of the first companies leveraging its Operator artificial intelligence agent. The partnership announcement on January 23 saw eBay underline that, while it has a long history in the e-commerce space, it is keen to incorporate new technologies in order to stay relevant in a fast-moving market.

Strong Q4 results, including revenue of $2.6bn and $19.3bn gross merchandise volume — up 1% and 4%, respectively, versus Q4 2023 — may bolster investor faith in the platform. Gross profit margins of 72% and a continued dominance in the online marketplace economy may also be reassuring.

As tariff tennis continues between US President Donald Trump and Mexico, Canada and China, all retail and commerce companies are likely to see dips in faith over the coming months. 

However, it is possible that EBAY stock will see slightly less downturn.

This is due to both the company’s relatively low exposure to China, and the platform’s core resale and refurbished marketplaces. Indeed, secondhand and refurbished goods could see an upswing if prices continue to rise.

What Can EBAY’s Recent Performance Tell Us?

Up 13.82% year-to-date and 42.21% for the 12 months to March 7, EBAY has been enjoying a rally since the end of October 2023.

Favorable market conditions and continuing sector relevance could see this rally continue, as long as cautious projections do not become a recurring theme in future earnings calls.

Despite the positive results reported for both Q4 and FY 2024, EBAY dipped 10.50% between February 25 and 27, following the earnings release on February 26, 2025.

Since the dip, the stock has begun to climb, closing just shy of its pre-earnings share price on March 7. With EBAY stock down 13.15% on an all-time high seen on October 22, 2021, investors might be wondering how likely the stock is to surpass those heady levels in the near future.

Which Stocks Compete with EBAY?

Amazon [AMZN] is another giant in the e-commerce space. While the platform has a marketplace feature, investors might consider the stock slightly more vulnerable to a potential downturn in consumer spending because the resale and refurbished segments are less central to company’s business.

That said, the firm also operates Amazon Web Services, as well as the popular Prime Video, Amazon Music and Kindle e-stores. This diversity might offer a reprieve from any downturns in the e-commerce arm of the business.

MercadoLibre’s [MELI] business is much narrower, primarily offering a marketplace for digital commerce transactions. Operating in 18 countries in Central and South America, including Brazil, Mexico and Argentina, the company could see an upswing in users if prices from US-based platforms become prohibitively expensive in these regions.

The business has been going from strength to strength, with Q4 2024 results showing a 96% upswing in FX-neutral revenues year-over-year for the quarter. 

Source: Yahoo Finance

Amazon’s May 7 share price of $199.25 leaves considerable room for upside versus the average analyst target on Yahoo of $264.71 — this may depend on whether the firm is able to match the ambitious 9.59% growth target for 2025.

Similarly, MELI is trading at $2,009.34, significantly below its average price target of $2,504.75. These figures could suggest EBAY’s competitors offer more space for growth at this moment in time.

EBAY Stock: The Investment Case

With big-name investors like Ray Dalio increasing their stakes in EBAY — by a significant 531% last quarter, in Dalio’s case — investors might be wondering whether the e-commerce stock is a good bet for their portfolios.

As ever, there are two sides to the story.

The Bull Case for EBAY

It is difficult to find consumer-facing stocks to be excited about in the current macroeconomic climate, but there are several reasons for optimism when considering EBAY stock.

eBay is clearly using considered expansions, partnerships and collaborations to bring new and proven technology into their business model.

From incorporating AI into their customer service process to continuing to develop and improve market share in areas like vehicle sales, the firm is clearly on a mission to future-proof the business. 

As mentioned above, the potentially challenging consumer market conditions stoked by tariff threats and the rising cost of living could end up benefitting eBay and other marketplace-focused e-commerce platforms.

As individuals search for more affordable shopping options, investors might have expected more ambitious targets from the firm’s Q1 outlook in the recent Q4 earnings. Instead, eBay is predicting between just -1–1% year-over-year revenue growth for the first three months of 2025.

The Bear Case for EBAY

That said, there are potential causes for concern on the road ahead.

Investors who do not already have a stake in eBay might be concerned to see that the stock is sitting 8.08% above the average analyst price target, as reported by Yahoo Finance.

eBay has enjoyed a notable run for 18 months now — with an RSI of nearly 77%, the stock is potentially overbought and could be due a correction. 

As buying handmade, secondhand and refurbished products — particularly fashion — becomes ever more popular among consumers, the platforms available continue to expand.

With other big names such as Etsy [ETSY] vying for market share, is eBay doing enough to maintain its position?

Quick wins such as scrapping private seller fees for UK users might bolster brand loyalty somewhat, but investors might be wary of the competition.

Conclusion

eBay’s Q1 2025 results, released later this year, will inevitably offer a steer on the company’s future direction. For now, investors will have to consider whether the company’s current setup is enough to keep profits from stagnating in the coming months.