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The next presidential election in the United States takes place on 5 November 2024. Political and economic events can impact financial markets, causing certain instruments to rise in value and others to crash. If you're an event-driven trader who likes to take advantage of price fluctuations, this could be a good opportunity to get involved.
Volatility typically increases during presidential elections where the result is uncertain, and the current competition between former president Donald Trump and current vice-president, Kamala Harris, could yet go either way, though Harris appears to be leading the race, according to the latest polls. As the election approaches, traders should closely monitor economic news and announcements.
There are several ways to trade around the US election, including hedging other open positions, investing in safe-haven assets, and minimising risk with order execution tools. US dollar FX pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD, US indices such as the US SPX 500, and gold are some of our most popularly-traded instruments.
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Our clients are eligible to spread bet tax-free in the UK on all financial assets, which makes it our most popular product. You do not have to pay stamp duty or capital gains tax, nor commission charges on any orders that have been executed. There is an additional spread priced in when spread betting on shares. Spread betting around political events can be an effective way to trade the financial markets while avoiding some costs you may pay through other forms of trading, although some spread betting holding costs and overnight fees may still apply. You should make sure you acknowledge these before registering for an account.
To start spread betting on some of the most popular US assets, you can register for a spread betting demo account to practise risk-free. If you're ready to deposit funds, you can open a live spread betting account to gain access to exclusive platform features, such as our trading forum, Reuters news and Morningstar equity research reports, and the ability to trade on 10,000 shares and over 1,000 ETFs, which are only available for a limited period (up to one calendar month) with a demo account.
So, which financial markets will be impacted the most by the US election?
Investors based in the UK can trade on US stocks through our derivative products. Many of the world’s largest companies by market capitalisation are based in the US, including four companies that have surpassed the trillion-dollar mark. The US is renowned for its development in technology, energy and healthcare; however, whereas some stocks may thrive in the aftermath of the election, others may crash.
Therefore, traders will be wondering: what is the election’s effect on the stock market? Let’s take examples from a few of the most prominent sectors.
Technology: Biden has often expressed his discontent with the increasing power that large-cap technology companies have over market share and insight into the public’s general life, but Harris' previous work as a prosecutor in San Francisco means she has been closer to Silicon Valley physically and emotionally, and workers at many tech giants have backed a Harris presidency. Share prices to look out for during the election include Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft.
Healthcare: The healthcare industry has been particularly volatile since the global Covid-19 pandemic and the US election could impact different sub-sectors. For example, Harris' plans for more affordable healthcare could cause share prices for drug manufacturers and insurers to drop. Look out for top pharmaceutical stocks such as Pfizer, Merck and Novartis, whose share prices could take a rise or tumble.
Energy: Whereas Trump is very outspoken about his disbelief of the risks of climate change and the need for energy alternatives, Harris is dedicated to focusing on renewable energy and sustainable infrastructure, and her victory could lead to a drop in share price for large oil and gas companies including Exxon Mobil, Chevron and BP. This would work in a reverse way for renewable energy stocks, such as Tesla and First Solar, whose share prices could reach an all-time high.
Depending on how the stock market performs, this will affect major stock indices in the US, such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ 100. These indices consist of shares from many sectors, and fluctuating share prices could offset the overall risk of investing in major indices. For example, the S&P 500 index has historically seen more positive performance than negative by a change in presidency, indicating that the US stock market can be adaptable and ultimately profit from volatility.
The US dollar has traditionally been seen as a safe haven, where investors pile their money to counteract the volatility of other financial markets, such as stocks. In this case, if there is a decline in share prices and index prices within significant sectors, investors may turn to the USD, along with commodities such as gold. The value of a currency usually reflects the strength of the economy, meaning that the dollar could either rally or weaken in upcoming months.
So, what is the effect of US elections on the dollar? Let’s look at some examples of currency pairs that may strengthen due to the political situation.
GBP/USD: There is a long-standing positive relationship between the UK and US in terms of trade, where the latter acts as the largest trading partner and consumer of its goods and services. This has led to GBP/USD being one of the most traded currency pairs in the world. In the run-up to the election, the pound strengthened against the dollar, indicating that this may be an effective asset to trade. Depending on which US political party is in office, this sometimes affects the appreciation of the GBP, which tends to weaken against the dollar under Democratic leadership.
USD/CNH: Tensions between the US and China consistently mounted with a Trump presidency, which was reflected in the value of the USD/CNH currency pair. The Chinese yuan has shown a rise in value at times, such as the start of the trade war in 2019 and then again after the nation’s peak of Covid-19 had passed. Improved relations between both countries may lead to a price increase for the CNH.
You can now trade on baskets of currency pairs with our forex indices, including the USD Index. This asset gives you access to multiple currency pairs that share the same base currency, the US dollar, which is an effective way of diversifying your trading portfolio. Trade on some of the most traded forex pairs in the world, such as the USD/JPY, USD/CNH and USD/CHF, by opening just one single position. Learn more about this unique asset on our Dollar Index instruments page.
The US is one of the world's largest suppliers and exporters of commodities, including raw materials such as oil, gas and precious metals. Gold is the commodity most commonly used as a safe haven and hedging tool for investors, especially leading up to political or economic events. In recent months, the price of gold has hit an all-time high, which suggests that many investors prefer to hedge less risky assets leading up to the US election, instead of trading stocks or forex. However, history has also shown that the value of gold follows the stock market in times of financial crisis; therefore, a stock market crash could have a major impact on gold trading following the election date. Traders should stay vigilant and monitor market updates to avoid losses. This also applies to crude oil trading, one of the most traded commodities in the US along with gold. In particular, Brent crude oil and West Texas crude oil are two assets that may rise or decline sharply in price in coming months.
Our trading platform offers a client sentiment tool, which allows traders to view what other clients are trading right now and if they are going long or short on their positions. This helps you to scope out the general market sentiment for an asset before entering a trade. Investor sentiment is important in periods of volatility, as it gives an indication of which direction the markets are headed, whether it be for forex, stocks, indices or commodities.
Learn how to use the client sentiment indicator to trade the US election results with our video tutorial below.
The presidential election officially takes place in November, but the impact on the financial markets can last for weeks, months or even years after the event. Our online trading platform, Next Generation, comes with a dedicated section for financial news and analysis, where our professional market analysts provide daily updates on assets including forex, indices, treasuries and commodities. We also offer a customisable economic calendar for clients that want to monitor upcoming events, to adapt to an event-driven trading strategy.
It is useful to stay aware of election updates that may impact the US economy and subsequent trading markets. For more information on how to trade the US election, our special US Election hub page comes with tips, market data and expert analysis .
In particular, the stock market will be impacted by the 2024 presidential election. Our platform also covers news and insights from external financial outlets, such as Reuters and Morningstar, long after the election is over. These are primarily reports on company fundamentals and market commentary.
Why should you trade the US election with us?
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