Technical analysis is the evaluation of a financial asset through the study of
historical market statistics. Technical analysts don't believe that market
price movements are random. Rather, they believe that these movements create
identifiable patterns and trends that repeat over time. Consequently, they use this
analysis to try and forecast the future price movements of financial assets (or
securities).
Typically, technical analysis is based on three theories:
The market discounts everything. In other words, everything you need to know
about a security can be found in its price. For this reason analysis should
focus on price
charts and movements.
Price moves in trends. Market prices are more likely to continue past trends
than to move erratically.
Trends repeat over time. Technical analysts believe that history tends to
repeat itself. Therefore, past trends can be used to help interpret future
price movements.
There are numerous technical trading indicators that have been developed by analysts.
They use these indicators to attempt to accurately forecast future price movements.
Technical indicators are mathematical calculations which point to trade entry and
exit signals. Trade signals help investors decide whether to buy, sell or hold a
security or financial instrument. Technical indicators are generally used with
charts. Indicators are placed over chart data to try and predict the price direction
and market trend.
There are different ways that traders can use technical
indicators. For example, some try to determine the strength of a trend, and how
likely it is that the trend will continue. Others focus purely on identifying
current market trend. Moving averages, chart patterns, stochastic oscillator, and
support and resistance lines are some of the indicators used to predict price
patterns in the financial markets.
Chart patterns are the most fundamental aspect of technical analysis. A technical
analyst uses charts as the source of any information they are gathering. There are
different types of charts used by traders, depending on their trading goals. The
four primary types are line charts, bar charts, candlestick
charts, and point and figure charts.
Technical analysts also use
chart patterns to help them identify trading signals. They believe that certain trading
patterns tend to reappear, and generally produce similar outcomes. The best
place to start is by studying long-term charts, such as monthly and weekly charts
spanning several years, as these give a good overview. Once a trader has gained this
perspective, daily and intraday charts can be consulted. This approach helps,
because a short term view in isolation can be deceptive.
Being able to identify trends is one of the most important concepts of technical
analysis. The trend indicates the general direction that a market is heading.
However, identifying trends is not always straightforward because prices rarely move
in straight lines. Instead, they move in a series of highs and lows and it is the
overall direction of these highs and lows which establish a trend.
There
are three types of trendlines:
uptrends, downtrends and sideways trends. An uptrend is signalled by a series of
higher highs and higher lows, while a downtrend consists of lower lows and lower
highs. A sideways trend is when there is little movement up or down. Trendlines are
a simple charting technique where straight lines are used to connect lower lows or
higher highs. This helps to show the general direction of the trend. Plus, they can
help traders to identify areas of support and resistance.
Support
and resistance levels are another important concept of technical analysis.
They are areas on a chart where the market's price struggles to break through.
Support levels are formed when a falling market reaches a certain level, and then
bounces. Resistance is formed when a rising market hits a high and then falls. The
more times a market hits these points of support or resistance and reverses, the
more reliable that projected line will be for future levels. They can be used to
help make trading decisions and can indicate when a trend is about to reverse.
Some stock movements are dependent on each other, with a clear relationship. This
correlation and dependence can be of interest in technical analysis. When the prices
of the two stocks move in a similar direction, they are correlated, or dependent.
For example, let's say the price of oil is increasing. Gas prices have a
tendency to rise as well whenever this happens. This means that they have a positive
correlation. When the price of two commodities consistently move in opposite
directions, they are negatively correlated. Two stocks moving independently of each
other without any correlation can help with portfolio diversification. This is
because when some shares in a portfolio are losing money, other non-correlated
shares might still be gaining.
Given the volatility of price movements, chart patterns can be difficult to read.
Technical analysts can use moving averages to help with this. Moving averages can
remove day-to-day fluctuations, making price trends easier to spot. They are also
useful for identifying support and resistance levels. Moving averages work by taking
the average of past price movements. This means they are better for accurately
reading past price movements, but are less suitable for forecasting future
movements.
The most common type of moving average is the simple
moving average. Other popular types are the exponential moving average and
linear weighted moving average. The most popular periods used for calculating moving
averages are 50, 100 or 200 days.
Lots of traders use candlestick charts when looking at price action data and
it's easy to see why. Candlesticks present the battle between buyers and
sellers in a very simple-to-interpret graphical way. Candlestick charts also have
their own range of patterns, with many focusing on the psychology of the market and
constant battle between buyers and sellers.
Below are some of the most
significant technical analysis patterns to spot when trading.
The bullish engulfing pattern occurs when a market has been in a downtrend. Bullish
engulfing patterns usually consist of two complete candlesticks spanning two time
periods (for instance one hour or one day). The first is a 'down' or
bearish candlestick, followed by an 'up' or bullish candlestick covering
the subsequent time period.
The size of the first candle can vary from
chart to chart. The first candle usually signifies the end of declining prices for
the markets. The second candle in the pattern should be bigger than the previous
candle and should cover (or engulf) the 'body' of the previous candle. The
bigger the second candle and the higher it advances, the stronger the
signal.
Here is an example of the FTSE 100 index based on daily
candlesticks.
In this example, the market had been falling for more than a week but there is a
relatively large 'up' day that completely overshadows the previous
day's candle. These two candles together form the bullish engulfing pattern and
suggest that weakness is coming to an end and the trend may be about to reverse.
Bearish engulfing patterns are a mirror image of the bullish variety, with the
difference being that with bearish engulfing patterns the market is heading higher,
but then there is a candle in the opposite direction to the trend which engulfs the
previous candle – signifying a change in sentiment from buying pressure to selling
pressure.
As with the previous candlestick chart pattern, the first
candle in this formation signifies that the current trend is coming to an end. The
size of the first candle can vary from chart to chart and it's the second or
'engulfing' candle that signals the change in trend. To qualify as a
bearish engulfing pattern, the second candle must completely engulf the previous
candle. Ideally, the high should extend above the previous candle's high and a
new low should be created – signifying renewed downward selling
pressure.
The below example shows the price of oil, and each candle
represents one hour of trading. Learn more about trading
with different chart timeframes.
As with all other trading strategies, candlestick charts should be used in
conjunction with other forms of analysis to weigh up when market sentiment may be
shifting.
Many traders will use technical indicators to figure out market direction. You may
have seen charts with stochastic oscillators, moving average convergence divergence
(MACD) and other lines underneath
the price. One variation of the indicator approach is to look for divergences. This
is where the price does one thing but the indicator does something else – it can be
a sign that a trend is running out of steam, offering the opportunity to profit from
a move in the other direction. In the chart below, the price of gold has a relative
strength index (RSI) shown below the price, which is always a popular
indicator.
As with the previous candlestick chart pattern, the first
candle in this formation signifies that the current trend is coming to an end. The
size of the first candle can vary from chart to chart and it's the second or
'engulfing' candle that signals the change in trend. To qualify as a
bearish engulfing pattern, the second candle must completely engulf the previous
candle. Ideally, the high should extend above the previous candle's high and a
new low should be created – signifying renewed downward selling
pressure.
The below example shows the price of oil, and each candle
represents one hour of trading. Learn more about trading
with different chart timeframes.
In the chart above, it can be seen that there is a significant slide in the price of
gold, as indicated by the red and blue arrows, and the RSI becomes very oversold,
pointing to how weak the market has been. Later in the same month and the following
month, the price of gold slips further, below those previous lows. But
interestingly, the RSI has started moving higher. This is bullish divergence – and
can be a suggestion that the downtrend is running out of steam, which proved to be
the case in this example.
For every positive pattern, there is usually a negative alternative and this is also
the case when it comes to divergence. When a market is making higher highs, but the
RSI is not following suit, this is referred to as 'bearish divergence' and
can be a warning that a top is near. The example below is an hourly chart for the
GBP/USD forex pair. As indicated by the blue and red arrows below, the market was
strong towards the middle of the month but the RSI then makes a lower high than
previously, suggesting that momentum may be starting to fade away.
This divergence approach using indicators is thought to be more reliable than just
using them as simple overbought or oversold signals. As ever, nothing works all the
time but they can help to 'take the temperature' of a market and act as a
warning that a previously good trend could be about to stall.
As mentioned before, no trading strategy is right all of the time but even false
signals can give a hint into market direction. The breakout strategy is a popular
one with momentum traders: when a previous low or high is broken on the chart some
will see it as the sign of a new trend. But a lot of the time this does not happen.
This false breakout can still give us an aggressive trading strategy and is a useful
bit of technical analysis on its own. Learn
how to identify breakout stocks
Technical analysis and fundamental
analysis are the two main approaches to analysing securities. As we've
seen, technical analysis looks at price movements and uses this data to try and
predict future price movements. It uses techniques like statistical analysis and
behavioural economics. Fundamental analysis, on the other hand, attempts to measure
the intrinsic value of a security. It involves the study of overall economic and
industry conditions. It also looks at the financial conditions and management of
companies through company
analysis. Things like earnings, expenses, assets and liabilities are
important to fundamental analysts.
Technical analysis and fundamental
analysis are often seen as opposing approaches. However, it's possible to
combine the two. A technical analyst may use fundamental analysis to support some of
their trades, and vice versa. For example, fundamental analysis could be used to
research an undervalued stock. Technical analysis could then be used to find a
specific entry and exit point.
The main differences
between fundamental and technical analysis
Technical analysts generally begin their analysis with charts, whereas
fundamental analysts typically research a company's financial
statements
Technical analysts try to identify short- to medium-term trades where they
can profit from market trends, whereas fundamental analysts take a
longer-term approach
Technical analysis focuses on strategies such as scalping and day trading,
whereas fundamental analysis focuses on long-term swing and position-trading
strategies
As a new trader, which path should you follow and what approach works best? The
honest answer is both! It's possible to make a profit using either technical or
fundamental analysis, but maybe there is a happy middle ground where a blended style
could give the best outcome.
It certainly pays to be aware when major
fundamental news is being released. At the very least, even the most committed chart
traders should know when the various central banks around the world are due to
announce interest rate or other policy decisions. This, coupled with the release of
major data such as unemployment numbers, can really move the markets. Trading with a
head-in-the-sand approach around these releases can be expensive, as market
volatility often picks up.
All of the above strategies can be used effectively within the financial markets, so you
can pick a form of technical analysis that is best suited to your trading plan and
overall goals.
When it comes to trading
risk management, this is another area where a combination of the technical
and fundamental approach could work. Economic news may tell you that the
market's attitude towards a certain financial asset is changing but it does not
necessarily tell you when your view on the market is wrong. Using traditional chart
points such as support and trend, for example, the fundamentally-biased trader can
manage the risk on his revised market view if that proves ultimately to be
incorrect.
It's maybe not too surprising then that there is no
definitive answer for the best form of technical analysis, and the argument between
the fundamental and technical approach is destined to rage on. However, there are
plenty of different and profitable trading strategies out there – be they purely
technical, fundamental or a mix of the two. It's all about finding a
methodology that fits with your own particular trading personality. Take a look at
our article covering the seven
most popular trading strategies and how to put them into practice.
