US election 2024

The race for the White House is heating up ahead of the vote on 5 November. Learn more about the US election and find out how to trade this key event.

FCAFCA regulated
FSCSProtected up to £85,0001
FTSEFTSE 250 group
Ribbon
2024 winnerBest Mobile Trading PlatformADVFN International Financial Awards
Ribbon
2023 winnerNo.1 Web PlatformForexBrokers.com Awards
Ribbon
2023 winnerBest Forex BrokerGood Money Guide Awards

Tips for trading the US election

React to potential opportunities as news breaks, even when underlying markets are closed.

Create price alerts in our platform to stay on top of market action around the US election.

Stay in control of your trades with our risk-management tools, including stop-loss orders.

Be prepared for spikes in market volatility ahead of the US election, during the count, and immediately after the announcement of the result.

Remember that US election polls are a useful guide but offer no guarantee on who will win the keys to the White House.

What are the markets to watch in the US election?

Political uncertainty can trigger market volatility. The key markets to watch around the US election include major stock indices, large-cap stocks, dollar pairs, and commodities such as gold and US oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate.

swipe

Pricing is indicative. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

Trump vs. Harris: how the markets could react

A second Trump presidency might usher in a protectionist, “America first” agenda that could have far-reaching implications for everything from the dollar to energy stocks, cryptocurrencies and perhaps even the Federal Reserve’s independence.

However, as Michael Kramer, the trader and founder of Mott Capital Management, argues, the winners and losers of a possible Trump presidency remain “unclear for the moment [and] traders will be hoping for greater clarity” as election day approaches.

If Harris wins the US presidential election, global markets may react favourably to the prospect of political continuity and economic stability.

A Democrat victory could also benefit sectors that the party has focused on in the past, such as green energy, healthcare and infrastructure.

However, as recent history has reminded us, it is often not policies but events – such as pandemics, wars and technological breakthroughs – that tend to have the greatest impact on markets.

Moving the markets

How have the key instruments below behaved before and after each of the last eight presidential elections?

Select the instrument to discover the price movements before and after the date of their election.

Joe Biden

Joe Biden

Democrat (2021-present)

100 days before
US 30
25,605.50
3 days before
US 30
26,659.10

Elected:

3 Nov 2020

US 30
27,480.00
3 days after
US 30
28,323.40
100 days after
US 30
33,067.00
Donald Trump

Donald Trump

Republican (2017-2021)

100 days before
US 30
17,675.20
3 days before
US 30
17,930.70

Elected:

8 Nov 2016

US 30
18,332.70
3 days after
US 30
18,847.70
100 days after
US 30
20,689.20

Disclaimer: The prices displayed above are indicative and provided for general information only. The figures refer to simulated past performance and actual past performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Expert views

We asked six market experts for their views on whether each financial instrument would rise or fall in the month leading up to the November 5 election.

Each expert rated their confidence on a 1 to 9 scale: 1 means strong confidence it will fall, and 9 means strong confidence it will rise. Select an instrument below to see their insights.

Q4 moves

What tends to happen to assets in the months around an election?

The charts below illustrate price fluctuations for each instrument during the months of October, November, and December, across the last five US elections.

President Bush

2004: George W. Bush

President Obama

2008

2012: Barack Obama

President Trump

2016: Donald Trump

President Biden

2020: Joe Biden

US 30

US SPX500

EUR/USD

GBP/USD

GOLD

CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Their trading strategies do not guarantee any return and CMC Markets shall not be held responsible for any loss that you may incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information contained herein.

How to trade the US election with us

  • 1

    Open an account

    Open a free demo account to practise trading on our award-winning2 platform with £10,000 in virtual funds. Then, when you're ready, open a live spread betting or CFD trading account with us.

    Open an account
  • 2

    Pick a market

    Trade the US election by speculating on markets such as indices, shares, forex and commodities. The US election could impact financial instruments including the US 30, USD/JPY and Gold.

  • 3

    Keep up to date with US election news

    Keep your finger on the pulse with Reuters news and Morningstar stock data (available in our trading platform to live account holders), and get expert insights from our team of analysts.

    See market news and analysis
  • 4

    Develop a trading plan

    It’s important to do your research and develop a risk-management strategy, familiarising yourself with our range of risk-management tools such as stop-loss orders.

  • 5

    Place your trade

    Once you’ve followed the above steps, you’re ready to execute your trading plan and place a trade.

Key dates in the 2024 US election

1

19-22 August

Democratic National Convention

2

10 September

Presidential debate

3

1 October

Vice-presidential debate

4

5 November

Election day

When is the next US election?

The next US presidential election will take place on Tuesday, 5 November 2024.

US presidential elections have been held every four years since 1788.

When was the last US election?

The last US presidential election was held on Tuesday, 3 November 2020.

The election was won by Democratic former vice-president Joe Biden, who became the 46th president of the United States.

US-related news

Spread Betting & CFD Trading

Ready to get started?

Open a demo account to practise trading with £10,000 in virtual funds. When you're ready, step up to a live account to trade for real.

Do you have any questions?

Email us at clientmanagement@cmcmarkets.co.uk or call us on +44 (0)20 7170 8200 (Lines open 24hrs, Monday to Friday)

1The Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) is an independent body that offers protection to customers of financial services firms that have failed. The compensation amount may be up to £85,000 per eligible person, per firm. Eligibility conditions apply. Please contact the FSCS for more information.

2Awarded Best Mobile Trading Platform, ADVFN International Financial Awards 2024; No.1 Web Platform, ForexBrokers.com Awards 2023; No.1 Platform Technology, ForexBrokers.com Awards 2022.

SPREAD BETTING
& CFD TRADING

Contact
+44 (0)20 7170 8200Lines open 24hrs, Monday - Friday
clientmanagement@cmcmarkets.co.uk
CMC Markets Headquarters
133 Houndsditch, London, EC3A 7BX
Garden Tower Neue Mainzer Str. 46-50, Frankfurt, 60311
Level 20, Tower 3, International Towers 300 Barangaroo Avenue
Join us

Download our app

With our intuitive trading apps, you can keep an eye on the markets and your open positions on the go

Google Play StoreApple App Store

Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when spread betting and/or trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets, CFDs, OTC options or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

CMC Markets UK plc (173730) and CMC Spreadbet plc (170627) are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom.

Telephone calls and online chat conversations may be recorded and monitored. Apple, iPad, and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Android is a trademark of Google Inc. This website uses cookies to obtain information about your general internet usage. Removal of cookies may affect the operation of certain parts of this website. Learn about cookies and how to remove them. Portions of this page are reproduced from work created and shared by Google and used according to terms described in the Creative Commons 3.0 Attribution License.