US election 2024
The race for the White House is heating up ahead of the vote on 5 November. Learn more about the US election and find out how to trade this key event.
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Tips for trading the US election
React to potential opportunities as news breaks, even when underlying markets are closed.
Create price alerts in our platform to stay on top of market action around the US election.
Stay in control of your trades with our risk-management tools, including stop-loss orders.
Be prepared for spikes in market volatility ahead of the US election, during the count, and immediately after the announcement of the result.
Remember that US election polls are a useful guide but offer no guarantee on who will win the keys to the White House.
What are the markets to watch in the US election?
Political uncertainty can trigger market volatility. The key markets to watch around the US election include major stock indices, large-cap stocks, dollar pairs, and commodities such as gold and US oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate.
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Pricing is indicative. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
Trump vs. Harris: how the markets could react
A second Trump presidency might usher in a protectionist, “America first” agenda that could have far-reaching implications for everything from the dollar to energy stocks, cryptocurrencies and perhaps even the Federal Reserve’s independence.
However, as Michael Kramer, the trader and founder of Mott Capital Management, argues, the winners and losers of a possible Trump presidency remain “unclear for the moment [and] traders will be hoping for greater clarity” as election day approaches.
If Harris wins the US presidential election, global markets may react favourably to the prospect of political continuity and economic stability.
A Democrat victory could also benefit sectors that the party has focused on in the past, such as green energy, healthcare and infrastructure.
However, as recent history has reminded us, it is often not policies but events – such as pandemics, wars and technological breakthroughs – that tend to have the greatest impact on markets.
A second Trump presidency might usher in a protectionist, “America first” agenda that could have far-reaching implications for everything from the dollar to energy stocks, cryptocurrencies and perhaps even the Federal Reserve’s independence.
However, as Michael Kramer, the trader and founder of Mott Capital Management, argues, the winners and losers of a possible Trump presidency remain “unclear for the moment [and] traders will be hoping for greater clarity” as election day approaches.
If Harris wins the US presidential election, global markets may react favourably to the prospect of political continuity and economic stability.
A Democrat victory could also benefit sectors that the party has focused on in the past, such as green energy, healthcare and infrastructure.
However, as recent history has reminded us, it is often not policies but events – such as pandemics, wars and technological breakthroughs – that tend to have the greatest impact on markets.
Moving the markets
How have the key instruments below behaved before and after each of the last eight presidential elections?
Select the instrument to discover the price movements before and after the date of their election.
Bill Clinton
Democrat (1993-1997)
Elected:
3 Nov 1992
Bill Clinton
3 November 1992
Democrat
Bill Clinton
Democrat (1997-2001)
Elected:
5 Nov 1996
Bill Clinton
5 November 1996
Democrat
George W. Bush
Republican (2001-2005)
Elected:
7 Nov 2000
George W. Bush
7 November 2000
Republican
George W. Bush
Republican (2005-2009)
Elected:
4 Nov 2004
George W. Bush
4 November 2004
Republican
Barack Obama
Democrat (2009-2013)
Elected:
4 Nov 2008
Barack Obama
4 November 2008
Democrat
Barack Obama
Democrat (2013-2017)
Elected:
6 Nov 2012
Barack Obama
6 November 2012
Democrat
Donald Trump
Republican (2017-2021)
Elected:
8 Nov 2016
Donald Trump
8 November 2016
Republican
Joe Biden
Democrat (2021-present)
Elected:
3 Nov 2020
Joe Biden
3 November 2020
Democrat
Joe Biden
Democrat (2021-present)
Elected:
3 Nov 2020
Donald Trump
Republican (2017-2021)
Elected:
8 Nov 2016
Disclaimer: The prices displayed above are indicative and provided for general information only. The figures refer to simulated past performance and actual past performance. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Expert views
We asked six market experts for their views on whether each financial instrument would rise or fall in the month leading up to the November 5 election.
Each expert rated their confidence on a 1 to 9 scale: 1 means strong confidence it will fall, and 9 means strong confidence it will rise. Select an instrument below to see their insights.
Negative sentiment
Neutral
Positive sentiment
Ian Coleman
Analyst, FXStreet
@ColiesCalls
Michael Kramer
Founder of Mott Capital
@MichaelMOTTCM
Michele Schneider
Chief Strategist, MarketGauge
@marketminute
Julius de Kempenaer
Director - RRG Research
@jdekempenae
Jochen Stanzl
Chief Market Analyst
CMC Markets
Konstantin Oldenburger
Market Analyst
CMC Markets
Q4 moves
What tends to happen to assets in the months around an election?
The charts below illustrate price fluctuations for each instrument during the months of October, November, and December, across the last five US elections.
2004: George W. Bush
2008
2012: Barack Obama
2016: Donald Trump
2020: Joe Biden
US 30
US SPX500
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
GOLD
US 30
US SPX500
EUR/USD
GBP/USD
GOLD
CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. Their trading strategies do not guarantee any return and CMC Markets shall not be held responsible for any loss that you may incur, either directly or indirectly, arising from any investment based on any information contained herein.
How to trade the US election with us
- 1
Open an account
Open a free demo account to practise trading on our award-winning2 platform with £10,000 in virtual funds. Then, when you're ready, open a live spread betting or CFD trading account with us.
Open an account - 2
- 3
Keep up to date with US election news
Keep your finger on the pulse with Reuters news and Morningstar stock data (available in our trading platform to live account holders), and get expert insights from our team of analysts.
See market news and analysis - 4
Develop a trading plan
It’s important to do your research and develop a risk-management strategy, familiarising yourself with our range of risk-management tools such as stop-loss orders.
- 5
Place your trade
Once you’ve followed the above steps, you’re ready to execute your trading plan and place a trade.
Key dates in the 2024 US election
19-22 August
Democratic National Convention
10 September
Presidential debate
1 October
Vice-presidential debate
5 November
Election day
When is the next US election?
The next US presidential election will take place on Tuesday, 5 November 2024.
US presidential elections have been held every four years since 1788.
When was the last US election?
The last US presidential election was held on Tuesday, 3 November 2020.
The election was won by Democratic former vice-president Joe Biden, who became the 46th president of the United States.
US-related news
newsThe Week Ahead: US PCE inflation, jobs report; Microsoft, Amazon results
Read our preview of major market events in the week beginning Monday, 28 October 2024, and view our economic and company reports calendar.
M. - 25 Oct 2024analysisThe Week Ahead: UK inflation, US retail sales, Netflix results
Read our preview of major market events in the week beginning Monday, 14 October 2024, and view our economic and company reports calendar.
M. - 11 Oct 2024analysisThe Week Ahead: Fed minutes, US inflation, JPMorgan results
Read our preview of major market events in the week beginning Monday, 7 October 2024, and view our economic and company reports calendar.
M. - 04 Oct 2024
Spread Betting & CFD Trading
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