US election 2024: Harris vs Trump

How will the US election shake up the markets? Discover the key dates to watch and which instruments could be impacted.

How elections can impact markets

Policy

Elections often bring shifts in government policies. Changes in spending and tax policies can either stimulate or weaken specific sectors or the entire market. For instance, one candidate might favour renewable energy, while another might support fossil fuels, creating different market outcomes.

Regulation

A change in power can mean a shift in the agenda for new regulations or the repeal of existing ones, impacting financial performance. Increased legislation can raise compliance costs, while deregulation can lower these costs and boost profitability for certain industries.

Geopolitics

A leadership change can reshape international relationships, trade agreements, and the status of conflicts. These shifts can significantly affect market performance, influencing both stability and investor confidence worldwide.

Volatility

Stock market volatility may increase around election time due to uncertainty about new government policies. This uncertainty can lead to financial and social instability. Markets often move in response to the anticipated outcome of an election, reflecting investor sentiment and speculation about future policies.

2024 presidential election calendar

What are the major events that could impact the markets during the US Election?

27 Jun

Biden-Trump debate on CNN

Gain insights into the candidates' positions and public reactions to the debate.

15 Jul

Republican National Convention

Republican delegates select their nominees for president and vice president.

19 Aug

Democratic National Convention

Democratic delegates select their nominees for president and vice president.

10 Sept

Harris-Trump debate

Further understanding of candidates' positions and public reactions.

5 Nov

Election Day

Voting occurs, and the elected candidate is eventually determined. While projections can be made on election night, official results may take days to weeks.

Markets to monitor

Forex

The US election can significantly impact the USD and major currency pairs like EUR/USD, SGD/USD, and USD/JPY. Interest rate policies, trade agreements, and fiscal measures may cause fluctuations in the USD's strength, influencing global currency markets.

Commodities

Gold and oil can be highly sensitive to US elections. Political uncertainty can boost gold's safe-haven appeal, while changes in energy policies and geopolitical stability may drive oil prices. These commodities often reflect investor sentiment and potential policy shifts.

Indices

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq can be influenced by election outcomes due to possible changes in corporate tax rates, regulatory environments, and economic growth policies. These factors may affect sector performance and overall market sentiment, impacting these key indices.

Equities

Volatility and policy changes can impact individual equities, creating winners and losers in sectors like technology, energy, and defense. Geopolitical conditions shape supply chains and trade, influencing market dynamics and affecting the growth potential and profitability of stocks.