Analysis
Commodities
Gold hits historic $3,000 as economic uncertainty deepens

Gold hits historic $3,000 as economic uncertainty deepens

Henry Fisher

Senior Content Specialist

4 minute read

|18 Mar 2025

Table of contents

1.
Key factors
2.
Technical insights
3.
Outlook
4.
Further reading

Gold has recently hit a historic record high of $3,000 USD as investors sought refuge amid rising economic uncertainty.

Key factors

US tariff turmoil sparks recession fears – President Trump’s fluctuating tariff policies have unsettled markets, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets. Recent developments include the EU’s retaliatory tariffs on US whiskey and Trump’s counter-threat to impose 200% duties on European wines and spirits. Recession fears are mounting as policy uncertainty under the new administration grows. Goldman Sachs has increased its recession probability from 15% to 20%, while J.P. Morgan warns of a 40% likelihood this year, citing “extreme U.S. policies,” Bloomberg reports.
Central bank buying spree – Global central bank gold purchases remain strong, continuing a multi-year trend of increasing reserves as a hedge against economic instability. In 2024, central banks purchased 1,041 tonnes of gold, following record highs in 2022 and 2023.
Geopolitical tensions – Gold has benefited from ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine war, over the past few years. Recently, Trump’s push for NATO allies to increase defence spending drove European defence stocks higher. However, with Putin and Trump set to hold talks, the outlook on Ukraine could shift. The White House stated, "We've never been closer to peace than at this moment," ahead of their scheduled call on Tuesday morning US time.
Inflation and Fed expectations – February’s cooling inflation has raised speculation that the Federal Reserve may consider policy easing in the coming months.

Technical insights

Gold remains in a strong uptrend, as indicated by the daily chart. While the RSI is overbought, strong upside momentum continues to support higher prices. The $3,000 psychological level is the key level to watch. Although breaking above it is a significant milestone, it has yet to be firmly established as support. A pullback below this level remains possible, with prices potentially retesting lower support zones. Sustained trading above $3,000 could reinforce the uptrend, while a failure to hold could signal consolidation or a deeper retracement.

Support:

$3,000 (psychological level, not yet confirmed as strong support)
$2,879
$2,832 (March low)

Resistance:

Fresh record highs

RSI: Overbought at 71.85% on the daily chart

Outlook

The $3,000 mark remains the key focus, with further gains possible if uncertainty around US tariffs and inflation persists. Macquarie Group analysts noted last week that gold could reach a record-breaking $3,500 per ounce in the third quarter, driven by its safe-haven appeal. While no rate changes are expected at this week's Federal Reserve meeting, any indication of future easing could support further gold gains. On the other hand, any advancement in Russia-Ukraine peace talks could dampen gold’s rally as risk appetite increases. For now, gold remains in a strong uptrend, with demand from investors and central banks continuing to support its record-breaking ascent.

Looking at the broader picture, gold continues to be closely aligned with macroeconomic trends and geopolitical developments, as it has been over the past five years. Ongoing uncertainties around trade policies, central bank actions, inflation and global tensions will likely remain key drivers of price movements in the months ahead.

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Gold hits historic $3,000 as economic uncertainty deepens

Key factors

Technical insights

Outlook

Further reading