The coming week will be dominated by central banks, with rate-setting meetings due to take place in Japan, the US and the UK, among others – see our events calendar, below, for a full list. The headline economic data release arguably comes on Monday in the form of US retail sales figures for February, closely followed by import and export prices on Tuesday. These numbers may take on added significance given rising trade tensions and tariff threats. If inflationary pressures in the US are to spread to the real economy and the rest of the world, they will first appear in US import and export data.
US Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Wednesday 19 March
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold the fed funds rate steady in its current range of 4.25% to 4.5%. Crucially, the meeting will allow policymakers to communicate their plans for future cuts through the Summary of Economic Projections, the Fed’s quarterly summary of forecasts for GDP growth, unemployment, inflation and interest rates. The market remains split on how many interest rate cuts the Fed will implement in 2025, with expectations ranging from two to three. The timing of the next rate cut is also subject to debate, though most market participants expect cuts to resume in June or July. Fed funds futures contracts are pricing in 100 basis points of cuts by December 2026.
