CMC's dark horses for 2025: unexpected scenarios that could shock the system

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Each year, certain assets and scenarios emerge from the shadows, defying expectations and capturing investors' attention. These are the dark horses: unpredictable and often overlooked, yet capable of delivering a significant impact. Our hypothetical dark horses for 2025 extend beyond unexpected success stories. They also include controversial players facing equal risks from headwinds. Some may rise spectacularly, while others could stumble dramatically. In this analysis, we spotlight a range of dark horses and the key factors that could shape their success or failure. Will 2025 be the year they take centre stage?

ARKQ rockets to $180 as autonomous tech transforms industries 

Michael Bogoevski, Head of Institutional Sales 

The ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF (ARKQ:US) embodies the "Blade Runner Trade," offering exposure to robotics and AI advancements reminiscent of the Tyrell Corporation's creations in Blade Runner. ARKQ’s chart has shown notable strength compared to other ARK products, reflecting strong investor conviction heading into 2025. In our theoretical 2025 scenario, several ARKQ holdings achieve breakthroughs as autonomous AI and robotics begin to deliver real-world impact, driving the next phase of the AI boom. Notably, Tesla’s supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) launches in China and Europe, with regulatory progress toward unsupervised FSD. Optimus robots begin operating in Tesla factories, with initial batches ready for deployment in 2026. 

Risks include supply chain disruptions and fierce competition from Chinese tech leaders, potentially pressuring margins and stalling growth. Over time, much like with Blade Runner, these ventures may spark a societal reckoning, as ethical dilemmas intensify in a world becoming “more human than human.” 

Lockheed Martin soars to $700 as China tensions escalate 

Jimmy Pan, Head of Sales 

Lockheed Martin (LMT:US) reaches $700 in 2025, cementing its position as the premier defence stock due to its strategic advantage beyond current global conflicts. While other defence companies may face reduced demand if Russia-Ukraine tensions de-escalate or the Middle East stabilises, Lockheed Martin’s leadership in F-35 production, hypersonic missiles, and Indo-Pacific defence systems ensures its continued relevance. Its space division and cybersecurity offerings diversify growth, while strong margins and a robust balance sheet provide resilience. Heightened tensions with China, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, drive demand for Lockheed’s advanced long-range defence systems and its established partnerships with Asian allies, solidifying its critical role in global security. 

Lockheed’s ascent could be challenged if US-China tensions ease, reducing demand for Indo-Pacific defence solutions. Resolutions to conflicts in Ukraine or the Middle East may lower global defence budgets, and US domestic fiscal constraints could redirect funding away from defence. Competition from other defence contractors also poses a potential risk to Lockheed’s dominance. 

Image: Lockheed Martin's F-35 Lightning II

Nike gets its swoosh back, climbing above $100

Chris Smith, Head of CMC Markets New Zealand  

Nike (NKE:US) is currently down more than 50% since its November 2021 peak. However, in 2025, its fortunes reverse as value investors seize opportunities in stocks like Nike, with consumer discretionary stocks soaring as the consumer-driven economy goes into hyperdrive. Among those already betting on this outcome is Bill Ackman, who boosted his stake in Nike by 440% to $1.4 billion during the third quarter of 2024. A key driver of Nike's rebound to $100 is the return of beloved company veteran Elliot Hill as CEO. With over 30 years at the company, starting as an intern, Hill's dedication and leadership are steering Nike back to its roots while paving the way for its next chapter. External dynamics, including a new president, lower interest rates, stimulus, and easing inflation, create a favourable environment for growth. 

Key risks to Nike's comeback include growing competition from brands like Hoka and weakening demand in China. With $50 billion in revenue, it’s the top player in athletic apparel, but is it still cool? More importantly, will consumers pay for premium gear if times get tougher? 

The USD DXY surges past 120 as Trump’s trade war fuels USD rally 

Carlo Pruscino, Senior Sales Trader 

In 2025, the USD DXY Index surges above 120.00, fuelled by a Trump 2.0 Presidency, massive tariffs, and an escalating trade war. Trump’s return to the White House reignites protectionist policies, targeting China, Europe, and emerging markets with heavy tariffs, sparking global retaliation and weakening foreign economies more than the US. As foreign currencies depreciate, investors flock to the USD as a safe haven. 

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve faces a tough choice between hiking rates to combat inflation or avoiding tighter policies to prevent a recession. In a surprising move, the Fed opts for inaction, allowing the USD to appreciate. Disruptions from the trade war cause global instability, further driving demand for USD-denominated assets and boosting the DXY Index. Currency turmoil in emerging markets amplifies the USD’s strength, pushing the DXY to unexpected highs. Risks include a de-escalation of the trade war or Fed intervention that could stabilise the dollar.  

Nation-state adoption propels Bitcoin to $300,000 

Henry Fisher, Senior Content Specialist 

In 2025, a perfect storm of factors aligns in favour of Bitcoin (BTC/USD), propelling its price to $300,000 USD by year-end, driven by nation-state adoption and corporate demand. In a historic move, the US government sells a portion of its gold reserves to purchase Bitcoin, implementing the proposed “Bitcoin Strategic Reserve” initiative. Meanwhile, institutions and corporations accelerate their Bitcoin accumulation. Surging global debt, renewed quantitative easing, and diminishing trust in fiat currencies underscore Bitcoin's role as a store of value. Amid the euphoria, MicroStrategy (MSTR:US) emerges as a dark horse in its own right. Michael Saylor continues to double down on Bitcoin, defying critics and embracing the volatility that could either propel his company's stock to new heights or sink it in 2025. 

Bitcoin’s rise faces significant risks, including a financial shock that could erode demand from both retail and institutional investors. With major players like Coinbase and MicroStrategy holding a growing share of the supply, the market faces added uncertainty. A security breach or operational failure at a key institution could shake confidence and cause significant disruption. 

Image: Donald Trump speaks at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, July 27, 2024.

Mineral Resources bounces back and hits $100 

Fraser Allan, Head of CMC Invest, ALPHA

Mineral Resources (MIN) hits an all-time high of $100 per share in 2025, driven by lithium prices surging to $30,000 per ton and a decisive move seeing founder Chris Ellison stay on as CEO. A rebound in the electric vehicle market and rising energy storage demand push lithium prices back toward record levels, solidifying MinRes’s position as a leading producer. Another part of this scenario is that CEO Chris Ellison remains in charge rather than stepping down despite corporate governance controversies. Shareholder pressure and the absence of a viable successor allow Ellison to stay. As a result, his aggressive growth strategies and operational efficiencies restore investor confidence. 

What factors could derail this comeback? Oversupply in the lithium market and weaker-than-expected demand growth could pose significant headwinds. CEO Chris Ellison has announced plans to step down within the next 12-18 months. As the company’s founder and driving force, his departure raises questions about whether MinRes can maintain its track record of delivering strong shareholder value without his leadership. 

The SPX500 faces headwinds post-inauguration 

Sakis Paratsoukidis, Senior Quantitative Trader 

Although a heavyweight in the market, the SPX500 surprised many in 2024 with an unexpected surge, delivering dominant gains. However, this extraordinary run starts to lose steam in early 2025. 

While history suggests US equities should remain buoyed into the year end and ahead of Trump’s inauguration in late January, a number of factors are conspiring to weigh on the SPX500 post-inauguration. The first is stretched valuations, with SPX500 PE levels hovering in expensive territory, amidst the backdrop of rising treasury yields which are compressing the equity risk premium. In addition, to this we are in an environment where insiders are selling while retail investors are increasing equity holdings to record levels – traditionally the combination of these factors are an ominous sign.     

That said, Trump’s plan to continue to lower the corporate tax rate from 21% to as low as 15% would be a boon for profitability and help buttress stock prices.  On balance, however, we would expect modest single digit gains in 2025.