Leading economic indicators

3 minute read
|15 Apr 2024
US reporting season in focus: high prices and high expectations Hero
Table of contents
  • 1.
    Trade Balance
  • 2.
    Consumer Price Index (CPI)
  • 3.
    Producer Price Index (PPI)
  • 4.
    Nonfarm Payroll
  • 5.
    Unemployment Claims
  • 6.
    Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
  • 7.
    Retail Sales
  • 8.
    Industrial Production
  • 9.
    Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

Key global economic data releases that can significantly impact your trading positions. These data are released daily from various countries including the United States, Japan, the Eurozone, and the United Kingdom. The focus will be on key American data, as the U.S. economy is the largest in the world and its releases tend to have a big impact on global markets. Understand what are the figures and what they represent for traders.

Trade Balance

The trade balance measures the difference between a country's exports and imports and reflects the competitiveness of a nation. If a country is importing more than it exports, it often signals lower competitiveness. The U.S. releases trade balance data about 40 days after the month's end, and it impacts equity markets, foreign exchange markets, and commodities.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

The CPI measures inflation by looking at the price changes in a basket of typical goods and services consumed by households. If prices rise, inflation increases, and the economy might become less affordable for consumers. If prices fall, it may indicate deflation, which can reduce consumer spending.

The CPI is released monthly, about 15 days after the end of the month.

Producer Price Index (PPI)

The PPI measures the changes in the prices of factory-produced goods. If it costs producers more to make goods, they often pass the cost on to consumers. The PPI provides an early indication of inflation trends.

The PPI is also released monthly, about 17 days after the month ends.

Nonfarm Payroll

Nonfarm payroll data is one of the most important economic reports, measuring employment in the private sector, excluding farm workers. It indicates the overall health of the economy and is released on the first Friday of every month. More jobs created typically suggest economic recovery, while a loss of jobs points to economic struggles.

Unemployment Claims

Unemployment claims show the number of people receiving unemployment benefits. A drop in unemployment claims is usually positive, indicating a healthier labor market, while an increase may signal economic distress.

This figure is released weekly, unlike other data, which is typically monthly. Weekly updates allow traders to gauge the employment trend in real-time.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

GDP measures the size of a country's economy. When GDP is growing, it signals economic health, while a decline suggests economic contraction.

GDP figures are released quarterly, about 30 days after the end of the previous quarter.

Retail Sales

Retail sales measure consumer demand for goods and services. Strong retail sales indicate a healthy economy, with consumers spending on goods such as electronics and cars. Declining retail sales could suggest a weakening economy.

Retail sales data is released typically 14 days after the end of the previous month.

Industrial Production

Industrial production tracks the output of the industrial sector, which includes manufacturing and mining. This data helps assess the strength of industrial demand and the overall economy.

It is released monthly, about 16 days after the end of the month.

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

The PMI is a diffusion index based on surveys of purchasing managers from various industries, including construction, services, and manufacturing. A PMI above 50 indicates economic expansion, while a figure below 50 suggests contraction.

The PMI is released typically on the first business day after the end of the month.

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