The Week Ahead: Australia CPI, US PCE, Nvidia earnings

Economic news remains light this week, and includes inflation data from Germany and second-quarter US GDP revisions. The key data points will come from Australia’s consumer price index (CPI) report and US personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data, with the latter being the US Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. However, Nvidia’s Q4 earnings report on 26 February could be the primary market mover, with the market anticipating a 7.76% post-earnings move – equating to a market cap swing of more than $260bn in either direction. 

Australia CPI data

Wednesday 26 February
Australia’s inflation rate has fallen sharply since peaking in December 2022. However, after bottoming out at nearly 2.2% year-on-year in September and October, the past few months have seen Australia’s CPI rise to around 2.5% year-on-year. Analysts now forecast the CPI rate to increase to 2.6% for January, marking the third consecutive monthly rise.

While two- and 10-year interest rates have remained steady, AUD/JPY has fallen sharply as the Bank of Japan raises interest rates and 10-year Japanese government bonds climb rapidly. A hot CPI report could pause some of the Aussie dollar’s recent weakening. However, the technical outlook remains bearish, with the relative strength index (RSI) repeatedly failing to break above 50 since November.

AUD/JPY, May 2024 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Nvidia Q4 earnings

Wednesday 26 February
Nvidia is expected to report that revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter of 2025 rose by 72.1% to $38bn, driven by the data centre segment and its new Blackwell graphics processing units (GPUs). Meanwhile, earnings are expected to climb by 63.5% to $0.84 per share, delivering gross margins of 73.5%.

Guidance will be key, with analysts expecting Q1 revenue growth of 60.4% to $41.8bn and gross margins of 72.2%. However, Nvidia has a habit of delivering guidance above consensus – typically by around $2bn – so an as-expected outlook may not satisfy investors.

Currently, the market is pricing an approximate 8% post-earnings move, suggesting the stock may struggle to reach $150, with strong resistance at $148.50. The RSI is trending lower, suggesting negative momentum. To the downside, there is faint support at $130; if that support breaks, Nvidia may retest lows around $113 in the days following the results.

Nvidia share price, May 2024 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

US PCE data

Friday 28 February
Current survey data expects core PCE to rise by 0.4% month-on-month in January, with the Cleveland Fed forecasting a similar increase. Should this estimate prove accurate, it would not be favourable, potentially causing a sharp rise in treasury rates and leading to the complete removal of any US interest-rate cuts from the Fed in 2025.

The most significant impact could be on EUR/USD, which has shown positive developments recently but has struggled to break through resistance around $1.05. The euro breaking above $1.05 could send it to $1.06. However, a third failure to break through $1.05 could cause a drop to $1.02.

EUR/USD, June 2024 - present

^{Sources: TradingView, Michael Kramer}

Key economic and company events

The coming week’s major economic announcements and scheduled US and UK company reports include:

Monday 24 February

• Eurozone: January consumer price index (CPI)

• Germany: February IFO business climate 

• Results: Croma Security Solutions (FY), Kosmos Energy (Q4), Zoom (Q4)

Tuesday 25 February

• Germany: Q4 gross domestic product (GDP)

• US: February consumer confidence survey, December housing price index

• Results: Home Depot (Q4), Intuit (Q2), Keurig Dr. Pepper (Q4), Workday (Q4 and FY25)

Wednesday 26 February

• Australia: January CPI

• Germany: March GfK consumer confidence survey

• US: January new home sales data

• Results: Aston Martin (FY), Lowe's (Q4), Monster (Q4), Salesforce (Q4 and FY25), Snowflake (Q4 and FY25)

Thursday 27 February

• Japan: February Tokyo CPI

• US: Q4 GDP

• Results: Dell (Q4), Duolingo (Q4), London Stock Exchange (FY), Ocado (FY), Rolls-Royce (FY), Taylor Wimpey (FY), Warner Bros. Discovery (Q4)

Friday 28 February

• Canada: Q4 GDP

• Germany: January retail sales, January unemployment data

• UK: February house prices 

• US: Q4 personal consumption expenditures (PCE), initial jobless claims to 21 February

• Results: Rightmove (FY)

Note: While we check all dates carefully to ensure that they are correct at the time of writing, the above announcements are subject to change.