Darren Sinden from educational provider Trade Uni discusses the latest market moves.
September is traditionally a poor month for equity traders, at least for headline index performance. However, the S&P 500 posted a 2.02% gain in September, taking its quarterly gains to 5.53%. At a sector level, utilities and real estate were the best performers over the quarter. The normally staid and defensive utility sector put on an impressive 18.47% in Q3, with real estate gaining 16.29% over the last three months. The S&P 500 utility sector has posted positive returns in four out of the last five months.
US equity indices were flat to marginally higher in yesterday’s session but there were losses in Europe. The FTSE 100 was down by 1%, the DAX by 0.8% and the CAC 40 by 2% as some of the euphoria around the Chinese stimulus began to fade. Renault fell by 5.6%, Vinci by 5.1%. and Carrefour by 4.5%. Only two of the CAC 40 constituents were up on the day, and those by no more than 0.6% apiece. There were few gainers in the Euro Stoxx 50, with the index falling by 1.3%. The Nikkei 225 regained some composure overnight, trading up by as much as 2.1% to offset some of yesterday's dramatic losses.
Two notable pieces of news happened overnight. Firstly, US dock workers have voted to strike, threatening to bring major US ports to a standstill ahead of the election and the key holiday shopping season. The second headline of note was the news that Israel has launched an incursion into southern Lebanon. However, oil prices seem to have taken that in their stride, with Brent and WTI trading lower in Europe this morning, down by 0.14%. High-grade copper gave up its gains yesterday but is retesting $4.50 per pound this morning.
On the macroeconomic calendar today, there is inflation data out of the eurozone and US manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, job openings and labour turnover data this afternoon, accompanied by speakers from the Federal Reserve. The earnings calendar is also coming into view, with Q3 earnings season in the US kicking off in 10 days. Analysts are expecting earnings growth of around 4.6% for S&P 500 stocks, which would mark the fifth straight quarter of positive earnings growth from the index. Given the positive correlation between earnings and GDP growth, traders might be caught between wanting to see earnings beats but acknowledging that this could diminish the chances of another 50-basis-point interest rate cut from the Fed.
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