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MT4 accountThe Artful Trader | Series 2 | Episode 6
Around the world in 80 trades
Ever wondered what it’s like to view the world in the palm of your hand? In the first episode of the Artful Trader we go around the world in 80 trades with one of the world’s top Macro investors Raoul Pal. He joins our Chief Market Strategist Michael McCarthy to talk about his journey from technical analysis to managing hedge funds to launching ‘Real Vision TV’. In this interview Raoul Pal reveals what he learnt from the world’s top traders and where he thinks the next ‘pearls’ of opportunity lie.
Raoul Pal
Former hedge fund manager who retired at 36, Raoul Pal is a co-founder of Real Vision, a financial media company offering in-depth video interviews and research publications from the world’s best investors. He has run a successful global macro hedge fund, co-managed Goldman Sachs’ hedge fund sales business in Equities and Equity Derivatives in Europe, and helped design the BBC TV program Million Dollar Traders, training participants in investment and risk management strategy.
Raoul retired from managing client money and now lives in the Cayman Islands, from where he manages Real Vision and writes for The Global Macro Investor, a highly regarded original research service for hedge funds, family offices, sovereign wealth funds, and other elite investors.
Download speaker show notes
Download for free the first chapter of Raoul’s eBook – ‘The Little Book of the Business Cycle’.
In this book, Raoul Pal, an advisor to many of the world’s greatest hedge fund investors, shows you exactly how you can easily forecast the ups and downs in the economy, your business and your investments better than most on Wall Street. His powerful but simple framework will give you the understanding you need to maximize your profit potential.
Episode 4: A Pioneer's Journey to the Top with Peter Cruddas
Michael McCarthy:
Dr. Peter Cruddas:
Michael McCarthy:
All right. Welcome to The Artful Trader. I'm Michael McCarthy, the Chief Market Strategist at CMC Markets Asia Pacific. In each episode we'll hear the highs and lows from the trading experts, and discover their journey to mastering the art of the financial markets. Peter Cruddas is the CEO of CMC Markets, and one of the pioneers of the industry, embracing the new technology that was the internet. But his is not the typical evolution within the finance industry. He grew up on a council estate in London, and dropped out of school when he was 15. After working first as a Telex operator, then a trader, Peter started his own company in 1989 with 10,000 pounds, one desk, and one phone. Peter is a pioneer who radically changed the way we trade. He opened up the markets for individual traders, and built the first online Forex trading platform. With offices all around the globe, and over 60,000 clients worldwide, CMC successfully floated on the London Stock Exchange in 2016, and executes over 62 million in trades a year. From London, please welcome Peter Cruddas to The Artful Trader.
Dr. Peter Cruddas:
Michael McCarthy:
Dr. Peter Cruddas:
At 15 I left school, primarily to bring some money in. I mean things were pretty tough at home with my dad and so on. My mum used to get up at five o'clock in the morning and clean offices, so it was pretty tough. But the thing that really helped me a lot was being a member of the Boy Scouts. It taught me how to be self sufficient, how to cook, how to iron, how to sew. It got me out of a difficult home life, and off the council estate when we used to go camping many many weekends. It really helped me to become an independent person. We used to go in for camping competitions, and swimming competitions. So I really learned to be self sufficient, and get through life.
So I got a job with Western Union, sending telegrams. I learned to type at the age of 15 and Ω, 16. I used to type the ticker tape. Remember, the little white ticker tape. I used to type messages. In those days the tape used to go through a machine and send telegrams all around the world. I was doing the night shift on Christmas Day at 16 and Ω. At 18 I was made redundant. But I had the skill, typing, which was quite important in those days. I got a job in a bank trading room, where I was able to call up different banks and ask them for the Deutsche Mark, or the French franc, or the peseta rate. Spotting forwards for the traders who would call out buy and sell. So I used to tie up the deals on Telex machines. I won't explain what a Telex machine is. If you don't know, just look it up on Google. But basically it's two computers connecting to each other.
By the age of 21 I was a trader, because I learned to trade, and I was quite good. Having quite a good brain and a high IQ helped me become a trader. So it was a back door way into the city of London. Not that I planned it that way, it kind of happened that way. But once I saw an opportunity, I seized upon it, and really worked hard at it. Then from the age of about 21 to the age of 35 I worked in various jobs in the city. For a couple of banks, and then a broker. I learned about futures. I learned about options. Trading deposits, trading foreign exchange. That got me to the age of about 35/36 where I did quite well for myself. I had a nice house. I had no mortgage. Then I decided to start my own company. I effectively started it off as a small brokerage operation. The niche for me was to try to offer wholesale prices to the retail market.
Michael McCarthy:
Dr. Peter Cruddas:
I went into that office. Rather than working from a bedroom at home, I would get up at 5:30, 6 o'clock, because I was used to that. I'd shave, put on a suit. I'd come into that small office with no views, sit down, and work out what I was going to do. Because I didn't have some big master plan. CMC stands for Currency Management Consultants actually, where I created a consultancy. The plan was to talk to big companies about how to hedge some of their forward foreign exchange risk, and at the same time look at doing some brokerage operations.
I remember I wrote to about 100 companies, Sotheby's, Rolls Royce. I remember getting about a two percent response from the letters. But one of the letters was from Rolls Royce in Derbyshire. They said, we'd be very interested in hearing how you can help us hedge our foreign currency. Please ring this number. So I booked a meeting for six weeks later. About ten days before the meeting they rang up and canceled the meeting, and I never had the meeting. I thought, being a consultant, and helping people with my expertise is just too slow, it's not dynamic enough. So I just concentrated on the brokerage side.
I started to create trading lines, and so on, and got going towards the end of 1990. Then I had a stroke of luck, or misfortune for some, but luck for me. Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, remember, in August 1990. Created masses of volatility, and a lot of interest in different currencies, different markets. Metals were going up, currencies were moving around. So I got lots of potential clients trading, speculating on different currencies. From 1990 to about 1994 I created a really nice boutiquey business. By then I think it was called CMC Corporation. I had a really nice business. It was making money. I didn't draw a salary for a year when I first started the company, from 1990 to ë91. Then it started to do well.
Then in 1994 I started reading about something called the internet. Bizarrely I thought, wow, this is going to be big. I saw the internet the same way as I saw Telex machines. Whereby you were able to connect to different organizations around the world. Because I remember I used to do money transfers for Western Union when they first started doing them back in the late 60s. We used to type up these money mandates, and send them to different Western Union offices around the world. That was right in its infancy of money transfers. But I realized also that it would be able to connect individuals to other individuals anywhere around the world
Michael McCarthy:
Dr. Peter Cruddas:
So my advice to employees is never fear change. Never resist change. Always embrace change, and work with it. Back in October 1996 we launched Europe's first online trading platform. I'll come back to the journey on that. In about September there was a knock on my door. I had three directors in the company at the time. One was the finance director, and one was the company secretary. They knocked on my door and said, listen, you've spent a lot of money on this internet thing. You haven't launched it. Cut your losses now. I said, no. I said, it's going to work. Why that was entrepreneurial, which seems an easy decision now, was at that time probably nobody in the company wanted me to launch internet trading, because they saw it as a threat. The finance director saw it was draining resources. But I was on my own, and I stuck to my guns.
Michael McCarthy:
Dr. Peter Cruddas:
To get back to the journey. Around 1994 I started reading about the internet. I decided that it was something we needed to get into. So I found some developers, who were actually telephone software engineers. We put together what I can only describe as a glorified email service. It was almost like sending an email, and someone responded to it quickly. The pricing was manually upgraded. We used to upgrade the Forex prices. That's all we had then. Back then there were no streaming Forex prices, we had to do it all manually. In October 1996 we finally launched our first platform. It was the first in Europe, probably the first in the world for foreign exchange. So effectively from October 1996, my whole world changed. Because we started to get more and more customers, more efficiency, more transparency, and actually drove down the cost of trading financial products online to the retail market. One analogy I use when I'm on the road shows to investors is it's now possible for a taxi driver to pull over to the side of the road, trade any one of 10,000 different financial products from their mobile phone, and they would deal at the same prices as Goldman Sachs. I think that sums it up.
Michael McCarthy:
Dr. Peter Cruddas:
In 2000 we established an office in Sydney. At the same time we launched a product I can only describe as a generic financial product. A CFD, a contract for difference. Contract for differences and CFDs are not new. I mean if you take the ASX 200, the futures price in Sydney, that is a contract for difference. It may be traded on an exchange, but CFD is purely a settlement term. It's not a product in its own right, it is a settlement term. If you buy a futures contract through your futures broker on the ASX 200, at expiration you cannot take delivery of one 100th of one share, you can only own one share. So what you have to do with your futures contract is to close it out. If you're long, you sell. If you're short, you buy. The difference is your profit and loss. That's a contract, the difference. The S&P 500, the Dow Jones, the FTSE, the [? 17:36 CAT], the DAX, they're all contract for difference to adjust trading on a futures market. We took that concept. We weren't the first, in the sense that companieslike Merrill Lynch and [? 17:50 Shearson] back then used CFDs for pension funds so they could avoid [? 17:55] the UK. It was a synthetic product. We took that concept, and we applied it across all financial products.
What we had in early 2000 was an internet platform whereby you could trade all these thousands of different products from one account. As opposed to opening a stockbroking account, a futures account, a commodities account, a foreign exchange account. So everything was on one platform. If you ask me about the unique selling point of CMC Markets there are two or three things. One of them is clearly platform. Another one is pricing and execution, and also product. I mean being able to have all of these products on one platform enabled us to really build scalability into what we do as a company, and to drive down costs for the retail market to trade all of these different products across all the time zones from around the world.
Michael McCarthy:
Dr. Peter Cruddas:
Michael McCarthy:
Dr. Peter Cruddas:
Michael McCarthy:
Dr. Peter Cruddas:
Michael McCarthy:
Dr. Peter Cruddas:
I remember a week after the stock market crashed. He used to hand me over his old book. When he got the new book on Monday, he'd hand me the old book with all his updates. He handed me this book with two pages sellotaped to the bottom. I looked at him. He handed me the book. I just threw it straight in the bin. I said, you know what you can do with that. I said, that's ridiculous. Why didn't you predict this movement? The thing about robots is I think there's a place for them. There's all different levels. I mean we read about high frequency traders. We do not allow robotic trading across our platform because we're across a public network. Effectively a lot of robots, or high frequency traders are trading market and technology latency. That's the key, if you're trading latency you're not actually trading the market, and you're not financial traders.
But will robots replace? I don't think so, because people like the experience. They like the control. They like the success of getting something right. They love the challenge. That's something. I mean what's the point in just pushing a button, and letting somebody else get all the excitement out of your trading, and then going off and playing golf? It sounds great, and I've tried it myself a few times, and it's great for a week. Then you get bored. You want that thrill, excitement, the adrenaline rush. You want to watch everything that's going on around the world, all the interrelated activities. That's the excitement. It's a very exciting thing to do, especially when you get it right. If you get it wrong it's the worst thing in the world.
Michael McCarthy:
Dr. Peter Cruddas:
I used to have an iPhone, and I used to have an iPad. Now I have an iPhone 7, I think it is Plus, where I don't use my iPad, I just have that screen. So I can trade from the iPhone. Not that I trade, but I can monitor from it. I haven't traded from the moment I started CMC back in 1990. I used to be a trader, and I traded very well, and I made good money. With the profits from trading I started CMC. But from the day I started CMC, I haven't traded personal accounts at all, I've just focused on CMC.
Michael McCarthy:
Dr. Peter Cruddas:
Maybe around ë85, ë86. Gorbachev stood up at the United Nations and said, we're going to cut military spending. I'm sitting there watching the speech in the trading room, and I thought, wow, this is going to be good for America, because it means they can improve their budget deficits. So I loaded up on dollar markup dollars. I sold Deutsche Marks, because that was the most liquid product at the time. I did my first 100 million dollar deal. I think it was 100 million dollars for me, and 100 million dollars for the company. I was accountable for my losses. The market went up about a percent in no time at all, and I banked a couple hundred thousand dollars for me, and a couple hundred thousand dollars for the company. Effectively I took that money and started CMC Markets. So that is probably the most memorable trade of my life.
Michael McCarthy:
Dr. Peter Cruddas:
I'll tell you one story. So I was at a Prince's Trust event. I'll cut it right way back. But a young girl came up to me, and she said to me, thank you very much. I just went through, congratulations, well done, you're doing well pulling your life around. She said, no no no. Effectively she said, look, cut all the bullshit. She said to me, listen, I was in prison for a bad thing. I was part of a gang, and I deserved to be in prison. But when I was in the prison I learned about The Prince's Trust. The Prince's Trust cannot achieve, cannot do what it's doing without people like you giving it money. She said, your money indirectly has allowed me to come out of prison to start my own company. But more importantly, my two kids have been taken out of care, and they're living with me now. That's what The Prince's Trust has done for me. If it wasn't for people like you, then I wouldn't have been able to get out of this terrible situation I was in. There's thousands of stories like that, helping young people. That one I remember well, because then she threw her arms around me, and gave me a big hug, and we were both sobbing. It was fantastic.
Michael McCarthy:
Dr. Peter Cruddas:
Michael McCarthy:
Dr. Peter Cruddas:
Michael McCarthy:
Dr. Peter Cruddas:
Michael McCarthy:
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